What Is Driving the Growing Political Gap Between Young American Men and Women?

Here is the actual paper with code, charts, models and more: https://www.overleaf.com/read/vkqwrhvdjvhs#119e47.

Introduction

Recent studies suggest a growing political divide between young American men and women, with women becoming more liberal while men trend toward conservatism. This pattern stands in contrast to the generally liberal leanings observed among youth globally. A 2024 Glocalities study shared with Reuters highlighted that since 2014, young U.S. men are the only demographic group globally showing greater inclination toward control rather than freedom.

This analysis investigates the factors potentially driving this divergence, focusing specifically on how race, income, and educational attainment influence political views across genders over time.

Key Research Questions

• How have young Americans’ political views shifted over recent decades based on race, income, and education level?
• How do these factors—and their potential interactions—affect political views differently for each gender across time?

Methodology

The study analyzed data from the General Social Survey (GSS), which has monitored societal change and public opinion in the United States since 1972. The analysis employed several methods:

1. Time Series Analysis: Tracking changes in political views over years, segmented by race, education, and income
2. Principal Component Analysis (PCA): Identifying variables capturing significant variation in political views
3. Multi-level Model Regression: Analyzing the hierarchical structure of data grouped by gender, race, income, and educational attainment
4. Random Effects Analysis: Understanding how predictor effects varied through years

Key Findings

Education’s Impact

• Higher education is consistently associated with more liberal political views across both genders
• Respondents with graduate degrees showed significantly more liberal views than those with only four-year degrees
• Interestingly, males with graduate degrees appeared to become more conservative after 2020

Income Patterns

• For the general population, middle to high incomes were associated with more conservative views until 2015, when this trend reversed
• Female respondents tended to hold more liberal views as their income increased
• Male respondents generally became more conservative as their income increased
• However, regression analysis showed income’s effect was statistically significant but relatively small in magnitude

Race as a Factor

• White respondents consistently held more conservative views throughout the study period
• The political gap between white respondents and respondents of color was more pronounced among males than females
• Race had a substantially larger effect on political views for men compared to women in regression models

Intersectionality of Factors

• For women, educational attainment emerged as the most significant predictor of political views
• For men, race played the most dominant role in shaping political views
• The interaction between race and income was significant for female respondents, illustrating how intersectionality affects women’s political leanings

Analysis and Implications

Race and Political Identity

Men’s stronger correlation between race and political views aligns with theories suggesting young men may be attracted to racially charged political rhetoric. This could be explained by Herbert Blumer’s group status threat theory, where increasing political conservatism emerges as a response to perceived loss of privilege. As America becomes more diverse amid economic uncertainty, white men may align with conservative ideologies in response to perceived status threats.

Intersectionality for Women

For women, the relationship between demographic factors and political views is more complex. Kimberlé Crenshaw’s intersectionality theory suggests that women’s compounded experiences of marginalization may lead them to better understand systemic issues and adopt more liberal ideologies, which could explain why race alone is not as influential for women as educational attainment.

Social Media’s Role

While social media has been noted to create ideological bubbles and promote extremist views, the study couldn’t determine whether this phenomenon affects men differently than women. Despite trends like the “Trad Wife” phenomenon among young women on social media, there were no significant corresponding signals of conservative leanings from young women in the data.

Ethical Implications

The growing political divide raises several ethical concerns:

1. Democratic Discourse: Significant polarization among demographic groups can diminish political dialogue, with people increasingly choosing parties based on ideological affinities and amplifying antagonism toward out-groups

2. Manipulated Autonomy: There are concerns about how media platforms and algorithms may manipulate political views, potentially compromising individual autonomy in forming political opinions

Conclusion

The widening political divide between young American men and women reflects a complex interplay of factors, including income, race, and educational attainment, each influencing men and women differently. The study found that race is a more dominant predictor for men’s political views, while educational attainment more strongly shapes women’s political leanings. This suggests different experiences and social forces are driving the political gap between genders. Future research could address additional factors and offer a more comprehensive understanding of the social and ethical implications tied to the evolving political landscape among young Americans.